Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Bears and Bulls tug-o-war

The market for the past few days has been the battlegrounds for deciding the future direction of the S&P 500.  The upward trendline since the middle of July is currently intact, however may be on its last legs.  Technically, the formation of today's price action in the SPY was bullish, and formed a bit of a bullish hammer candlestick...although candles are not my strong spot so I may be wrong.  Point is the market tried to fall lower, and was soundly rejected shortly thereafter.  Carl Futia wrote in his blog today that the reversal was a very bullish move, and I definitely respect that decision.  I still think the market will correct a degree in the near future, however I am not sure when this will happen. 

This leaves me to wonder what will be in store for the resulting price action as the 3 day triangle comes to a close.  There are a few scenarios that I can think of: 

Bearish breakdown
Bullish breakout
Bear/bull trap in either direction then continue in the opposite direction. 

For a trade play, I think the conclusion of this triangle, because of such violent price action within the trendlines, will continue for a few days after the market chooses a direction.  I may end up trading after the breakout in either direction on BGU or BGZ, with a stop under the trendline, plus a trigger to flip the position to the opposite side in case of a trap.  The reason I am so concerned about a trap is that the triangle is so damn obvious, that I think its pretty likely.  I will update this with a chart, and my intentions for this order tomorrow am.

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